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All time record high for gas oil, but congratulations to Chevron, at least we have some to sell.

Brent crude closed on tuesday at $119.62 up $7.64 on the day. Overnight gas oil has risen in excess of 1.5ppl to a new record. Todays Daily Telegraph talks of a final “superspike” where prices could top out at $200 per barrel. US investment bank Goldman Sachs believes the current energy crisis may be coming to a head.

Golman Sachs are quoted as saying “a chronic lack of supply would lead to a dramatic and contiuous rise in oil prices, followed at some point by a sharp fall in oil prices as customers retrench”.

Prices have more than doubled in the last year in what amounts to a massive transfer of wealth to the rising commodity powers away from the Atlantic region. Many analysts contend that the oil price cannot defy the global economic slowdown for much longer.

Citigroup said the price may fall to $40 a barrel within two years as the cycle turns in time honoured fashion and recent massive discoveries of oil come on stream. In the midst of this crisis finds like the Bakken Basin and the Santos Basin plus other significant prospects in the process of evaluation in Norway and Alaska will add significantly to crude supplies in  the medium term..

Lehman Brothers said this week that crude prices had surged so far ahead of rises in the underlying cost structure of the industry - typically a warning sign of the end of the cycle.

The St Day interpretation of this is that having opened “Pandoras Box” the speculative investment banks are now staring into the abyss that runaway greed has created and they do not like what they see. They could yet be the biggest victims of the mess they have collectively created.

The prospect of a return to $40 crude is tantalising, however realistically $80/90 crude in the foreseeable future would bring welcome relief to currently beleaguered end users particularly in the fisheries and agricultural sectors. Agriculture faces the double whammy of fertiliser and plastic price increases roughly in line with the closely allied gas oil price. Modern productive agriculture is the child of petrochemicals.

On a very positive note Chevron have “delivered the goods” quite literally. Following last weeks depressing press release detailing serious problems in the steam plant at Pembroke refinery we were facing potential close down due to predicted product shortages. It was an anxious weekend as developments were awaited at a virtually dry Falmouth Terminal with Plymouth on famine level allocations.

Tuesdays return after the Mayday bank holiday brought welcome news of unexpected replenishments at both Falmouth and Plymouth. I can live with our allocation for the next fortnight and plan accordingly. Warmest congratulations to the hard pressed team at Chevron commercial supply who have developed robbing Peter to pay Paul into an art form,  didnt they do well? Our ship was en route to New Ross when it was diverted south for Falmouth, hope the guys in New Ross are ok till it gets back there

Now its Pembroke.

Grangemouth was just receding in the rear view mirror when Chevron bang on cue announce that Pembroke refinery is off line due to “technical problems”. Further enquiries led to a press release announcing a major problem with the steam generation plant. This was followed up by a flurry of emails announcing product allocations at Plymouth until 14/05/08. Falmouth has already been stocked out of heating oil for over a week due to “shipping problems”. “Problems” seem to be the current buzz word to create potential havoc within our trade.

Last tuesday through to thursday saw prices retreating again offering the tantalising prospect of a return to more normal trading cobnditions. Fridays news of Turkish bombing raids on Kurdish rebel hideouts in Northern Iraq sent prices rapidly north again. Further anxiety was injected into this heady mix of price uncertainty on news of the strengthening dollar potentially generating further price increases (logica?l).

However the past several months have seen the weakening dollar blamed for the ongoing price turmoil (illogical???). It really would be good if these “anxious” traders made their minds up, however without the claptrap and cobblers they daily manipulate they would probably be out of a job.

Brent crude opened on friday at $107.32 advancing $4.66 on the day to close at $111.98. Distilates are up correspondingly by in excess of a penny a litre for tuesday.

The first day of May.

All things being equal, whilst still reassuringly busy we are at one of the crossroads of our working year, the heating oil season is wrapping up as the seasonal surge in gas oil demand gets under way. Farming and fishing are both coming to terms with the unprecedented price hikes during the winter months. On the fishing front there are going to be casualties as the fuel hungry beam trawl fleet succumbs to the crushing increase in fuel costs whilst earnings fail to keep up.

In real terms as a result of the strengthening Euro, export prices for fish are very good but that cannot alieviate the pain that fuel prices are visiting on the beamers. This problem is compounded by the typical age of the vessels concerned, engines that were built in a different age of plentiful cheap fuel were designed for durability rather than fuel efficiency. Ageing vessels are also more costly to maintain as corrsion and wear take their toll. As a result of dramatically decreasing earnings skilled crewmen are being lost to the offshore oil industry support vessel sector.

From a crewmans perspective this is a very viable option particularly for ticketed skippers and mates whose skills are are in great demand to cope with the harsh conditions that support vessels tend to encounter. A major attraction for these relocated crews is the predictability of their working year, a month on month off cycle ensures that holidays etc can be planned with confidence and they are able to spend quality time at home with their families whilst enjoying a guaranteed income. Most support vessel operators evolved from trawler owners diversifying away from previous upheavals in fishing such as the infamous Icelandic cod wars. This mobility of skills clearly illustrates the old adage that when a door closes another one invariably opens.

Many of the crewmen who have taken up this option actually manage to combine the best of both worlds by owning “punts” (18′-20′ open boats with miniscule overheads) handlining for mackerel, bass or pollack in their free time at home. These bonny little craft are actually still a buoyant sector as the demand for sustainably caught traceable fish increases. It once again demonstrates the tenacity and adaptability of the Cornish in difficult times.

The first early potatoes are now being lifted having been planted under clear polythene sheeting around the turn of the year, this eagerly awaited annual treat while costly is one of the most delicious meals I can imagine especially when accompanied by a couple of pan fried handlined mackerel fillets and some freshly cut local asparagus. What we may lack financially at times is more than compensated for by the bounty around us that must never be taken for granted. Hats off to those who work so hard to provide it and are so often undervalued and undersold.

Tommorrow is Mayday which to me is synonymous with Padstow and its “Obby Osses” and the addictive compelling beat of the May Song which anually brings Padstonians home from the four corners of the World. I regard Padstow as one of Cornwalls inner sanctums, the tourist trade can do its tacky worst but Padstonians are still there fiercely guarding their heritage. They may have moved up the hill to new estate houses while their former cottages in the town are mainly classy second homes but once a year they reclaim the town as their own to enact their ancient ritual to the beat of drums and accordians. The Streets are bedecked with sycamore boughs and cowslips and blebells abound with the locals dressed in red and white or blue and white to denote their alliegiance.

Having good friends in the town I feel humbled, as an outsider, to be invited to join in the comradeship that is a vital ingredient so rare these days elsewhere. Actually the second day is the better when the flowers have all faded and the streets are looking bare but the sound of singing echoes around the narrow streets and the children with their minature accordians and drums gather around the maypole in the afternoon. To me one man stands out in the crowd, John Murt, Northcoaster, former crabber, lifeboatman and above all still a singer. A small lively man with bright eyes, mischievious smile and a fund of songs  (several hundred from memory) like no other, from the emotional evocative “Second Day of May” to the hilarious “I was the lover of Lady Chatterly”. Now well into his seventies this human dynamo, in the words of his sons Bernard and Maurice “is a nightmare, he’s got no off switch”. To know John and be priveliged to spend some time with him is priceless, when he is the ringleader the boys from Newquay, Bude, Cadgwith or the Cape sing their little hearts out and we are all the richer for it. To walk aruond the Custom House and hear them through the open windows of Sarah’s house is enough to make the hair on the back of your neck prickle and put a lump in the throat of the toughest nut.

Its been a long hard winter with likely an even harder summer to come, I am due a couple of days R&R so I am off to Padstow. Bugger the work, to hell with the local elections, while the politicians squabble like Black Backs raiding the fish market offal bins I am going to be having a drink with old friends, enjoying the music and comradeship of a very, very special place. They can keep their elections, policies and initiatives which have brought us to where we are today, its playtime.

Grangemouth, a little local problem?

The Grangemouth strike is go, the Yanks are getting gung ho in the Straits of Hormuz and Nigeria is festering nicely. In spite of this the Government assures us, absolutely, that there will be no fuel shortages so it must be true. Our infallable leaders claim to be in total control of the situation so all will be well. The problem is the incompetent fools who claim to govern us are not fit to run a tombola stall at a garden fete and events could be about to overtake them. Exhortations to the great British Public not to panic usually achieve the exact opposite effect and Grangemouth is a serious player in the UK supply chain.

There is already a tight supply situation with regard to diesel largely the result of ongoingGovernment meddling with fuel specifications and the refiners difficuly in keeping up. It is highly likely that some refineries will have difficulty producing diesel to meet the impending Euro 5 specification without the current turmoil that is stretching the already tight supply chain.

Already this year we have seen Exxon Mobil cease to supply domestic kerosene because it is no longer attractive to do so as aviation kerosene is a more viable option. This has had an adverse ongoing effect on the availability of domestic kerosene in the southern UK.

The Governments micro management fetish coupled with the tidal wave of legislation engulfing the downstream oil distribution industry makes the activity an unatractive occupation ever more prone to supply interuptions and the escalating costs generated by continual Government interference in commercial operations.

The latest delight the haulage industry faces are the impending driver CPC’s (certificates of professional competence). These might just be acceptable for new entrants as part of their training but to inflict this sort of cobblers on experienced drivers is an insult to their intelligence and yet another costly raid on operators wallets. This has particular relevance when drivers in our industry already have ADR certificates which enable them to safely handle and transport dangerous goods. I can imagine my drivers reaction to the news that they must sit in a classrooom for 35 hours (at their employers considerable expense) and study such interesting subjects as healthy eating and personal hygiene which appear to form a part of the sylabus.

Our Trade associations are not blameless, apparently accepting this imposition, having previously mounted what seems to have been docile resistance of the most token sort before feebly acquiescing to the legislation. Given their interest in offering training and consultants one can but wonder whether they welcome the oppotunity to trouser further hefty fees from their memberships.

The weeks ahead are going to be interesting, the Country is in a mess, people are becoming angrier by the day in the face of breathtaking Government incompetence on so many fronts. From a voters perspective it could, quite reasonably, be construed that the current energy crunch that is hurting so many has been partially created by failed Government policies and initiatives that take no account of commercial realities. The Government appears to be drifting helplessy as this anger and frustration seeks an outlet which could well be 10 Downing Street and Parliament in the very near future.

At fridays market close Brent Crude finished at $116.49 up $1.69 on the day and $5.40 on the week . Currently availability may be more significant than price in certain areas as the old adage that the most expensive oil is no oil comes into focus.

In Cornwall we are as far from the epicentre as it is possible to be, any problems we may face will hopefully be transitory, however given the worst case scenario of widespread fuel shortages resulting from panic buying supplies will certainly gravitate towards the Metropolis.

Currently gas oil is the most crucial product as the peak agricultural season gets underway it is a case of tightly crossed fingers and well stocked tanks.

A visit to the Commercial Vehicle Show at the NEC but glad to be home again.

Spent part of last week at the Commercial Vehicle show at the NEC just off the M42 near Birmingham. The show and venue were highly impressive but I  can see why so many Brummies want to join us in the “Promised Land” given the grime and congestion they daily endure. The wall to wall surveillance cameras around the M42 are unreal and the recently introduced use of the hard shoulder for traffic proved an ingenious means of queuing for the next exit. There is no doubt that the measure expedites the flow of through traffic but it must be interesting if a vehicle in the queue breaks down and the traffic behind has to enter the inside lane to pass it.

Having got parked, buses quickly shuttled us to the exhibition halls where the displays covered every aspect of road transport and vehicle repair and maintenance. Two days were barely sufficient to see it all. There were four of us catching up with all thats new, meeting colleagues who had also travelled up from home in surprising numbers and trying to decide on what make of truck will replace our treasured ERF’s when the time comes. The ERF marque has been the backbone of our fleet since the early days, their economy and reliability has been legendary and will be a hard act to follow for our sort of work. Since their take over by Germany’s MAN choice has been restricted to the point where it is no longer possible to buy a British truck tailored specifically for our unique operating requirements.

This unpalatable fact does not decry the makes and models still available which are superb products but nevertheless will not give us the flexibility we formerly had to cope with our legendary narrow lanes with such ease. When Bennetts Fuels came into to the fold last December we also took over their trucks, one Scania 6 wheeler and an MAN four wheeler plus a couple of old ones not required for further use. Scania was a make that I had never previously considered being totally happy with and focussed on ERF’s, however during the past few months I have monitored the Scania and am becoming increasingly impressed with its reliability and build quality. One of the redundant Bennetts trucks, a DAF 6 wheeler has a very good bottom loading tank suitable for remounting on a new chassis with a 6 wheel rear steer Scania chassis soundly in the frame for the job.

Looking at our fleet profile rear steer six wheelers are becoming increasingly important to our operation due to their increased carrying capacity and manouvreability. The  economies to be gained from selling our oldest but still very servicable 4 wheeler and replacing it with a new rear steer 6 wheeler are increasingly obvious in view of the valuable spare tank we have acquired.

It all seems too good to be true, sure enough it is, due to decreased build capacity and surging orders in the enlarged European community lead times for new truck chassis are now up to 2 years in the worst case. Scania are actually quoting 19 months and a hefty £20,000 premium over  IVECO who are quoting a 14 month lead time which is still pretty awful. We are also looking at MAN & DAF as possible alternatives but the really interesting twist is the opportunistic Japanese who are offering Isuzu & Hino models with proven credentials in some of the worlds toughest conditions. They are quoting around 3 month lead times which is much more realistic and may end up offering us a radical alternative to the established order if we decide to go down this route out of necessity rather than preference. The real benefit of this outstanding show was the ability to compare like with like under one roof with all the technical experts readily available to fine up specifications and options.

The overnight stay was also brilliant, just a meal and a relaxed drink with good friends worked wonders for everyone, but the really funny bit was when another gang travelling back to the hotel with us in another car with the sunroof open got caught in an absolutely torrential shower. The electric sunroof would not close and a truck hitting a puddle of standing water nearly filled the car, they were not happy bunnies as they shook the drips off in the hotel car park. It makes a refreshing change for something like that to happen to someone else as I usually seem to be on the recieving end. The next evening was even better as we came over Four Burrows towards home with a gorgeous sunset relecting off the sea a long way from the M42 and very glad to be back.

The Grangemouth influence.

The week to date has seen further rises in product prices fueled by the prospect of real rather than imaginary shortages which have driven the market in recent months.

The major factor this week which eclipses the monotonous disruptions in the Niger Delta is the impending shutdown of Grangemouth Refinery on the Firth of Forth due to strike action scheduled for Sunday and Monday. Were it a straight forward 2 day disruption it would hardly register on the radar. However it takes around a week to safely shut down a facility of this nature and the best part of a month to get it up and running again.

Additionally the North Sea Forties pipeline system terminates at the refinery which is also fed via a 58 mile pipeline from Finnart Ocean Terminal on Loch Long which is capable of recieving tankers up to 324,000 ton deadweight.

Current refining capacity is in excess of 10,000,000 tons of crude per annum. Previously owned by BP the refinery was sold to the Ineos Group in 2005. Currently around half the output is road fuels (petrol & diesel). Kerosene & jet fuel account for 13%, gas oil 8% and heavy fuel oil 15% the remaining portfolio of products are typically LPG related and chemical feedstocks.

The normal stockouts at mainline terminals are continuing with Falmouth currently stocked out of kerosene which is available at Plymouth, earliest projected replenishment for Falmouth is the 3rd of May. The situation is much the same elsewhere, credit must be given for the ingenuity of the downstream fuel distribution industry for maintaining supplies to end users virtuallly seamlessly in the midst of this continuing chaos which seems to be symtomatic of our increasingly broken country and its creaking infrastructure.

With the peak agricultural demand for gas oil just days away as the foragers prepare for first cut silage we are carrying a healthy stock of gas oil for regular customers in case of hiccups over the next few weeks. A major stockout at this crucial time would be catastrophic for all concerned.

Brent crude closed on wednesday at $113.80 up $2.55 cents on the day at another record high.

“Testing Times” bring a mega payoff for “Comrade Blair”.

As the years have slippped quickly by I have developed an infinite patience, where I was once volatile and impatient always rushing to get things done I have evolved into a calmer less hurrysome being. Where there was once fizzing optimism and an unquestioning belief that good would always prevail and everything would happen quickly and beneficially, experience has dictated that it aint like that.

Along lifes often rocky road you tend to encounter individuals who insidiously chip away at your optimism, that is where patience will carry the day. I would like to think that I have managed to avoid the trap of cynical pessimism but do freely admit to a developing wry cynicism. In the course of work and business you forge many sound friendships but tend also to remember the sneaks and cheats, who latterly, seem to be in the ascendency. There is something about the world today that seems to favour the less desireable face of human nature, the lazy, the greedy, the selfish or plain downright dishonest. There is one other human failing, incompetence that is possibly even more atrocious as it invariably seems to combine greater or lesser elements of the foregoing.

This dangerous deficiency seems to find a fertile breeding ground in todays closely monitored, regulated and politically correct society where initiative or enterprise is anathema and failure is seemingly accepted and rewarded. This is non more so than in government, particularly the higher echelons where denial is an art form and truth often a stranger. The creepy paralel universe that the ruling classes inhabit is a safe cosseted place where perks and priveliges are taken for granted and true accountability is not even a speck on the rose tinted horizon.

Cut to the real world that provides the wherewithal to enable the excesses of the rulers and it is an altogether different more dangerous place. Free enterprise in the small business context has always been a bracing place with short summers and long dark winters. Regulation and taxation has sapped its vitality as the incompetents presume to know best. In the recent past they have exhibited that incorrigible streak of wilfullness that clearly demonstrates they do not know best as everthing their dead hand touches crumbles and fails around them.

In spite of this they have persisted along their chosen path laying waste to swathes of agriculture, fishing and manufacturing eagerly embracing in the process the negative damaging concept of outsourcing. The public services are groaning under the excessive beaurocracy which, while a major growth sector, is incompetence and inefficiency personified. The twin idols of financial services and the knowledge based economy operating in cyberspace have been promoted as our economic saviours. Currently the are exhibiting their glaringly obvious inherent flaws as recession and soaring inflation attack an already imbalanced economy skewed by the onward march of the client state.

A society that produces nothing but passengers hitching a free lift on the gravy train will ultimately starve. In the very near future a strong resilient agricultural sector is going to be vital as the stark reality of peak food eclipses the much peddled peak oil and global warming terror campaigns dreamed up to frighten and subdue us. The tabloid press and the BBC are currently the biggest terrorists as they whip up wave after wave of hysteria on the back of global warming which is in reality an heaven sent opportunity to further tax and control that this incompetent, opportunistic administration is embracing with relish.

The docile compliant client state that feeds off the lies and twaddle peddled by a media sector pursuing its own agenda will never call this awful souless administration to account because they are their paymasters.

The increasingly angry victims of this unfolding disaster are unable to make their voices heard above the clamour of the gathering storm that threatens to engulf us all. The despised population in the midst of this stinking qugmire who work productively and generate the taxes that feed the profligacy and ineptitude will eventually prevail, I am one of them and my infinite patience and optimism is not unique. There is a legion of others, often silent, who share my contempt for the incompetent inadequate fools who have led our Nation to the awful place it now occupies. Never have we faced such an uncertain future so divided, we are engaged in wars which are not really our concern. The finest Army in the World manned by honourable volunteers is used as a pawn in a clash of cultures that was instigated by the arrogance and vanity of a Prime Minister who history may yet judge to be a liar.

While the Soldiers he commited to arguably unlawful conflicts, daily die or return horribly wounded to an ungrateful Country he struts the World stage as a “Peace Envoy” or delivers “Talks” on the US lecture circuit. Gulliable mugs part with obscene amounts of money to hear this unaraigned traitor spout about his role in “World Peace”and the “War on Terror” whilst he smugly trousers the cashcade of profit.

This is the man who on election pledged to unite our Country and uttered the hollow promise that “things would only get better.” The same man who inherited the strongest economy in recent history and proceeded to squander it along with the legacy of our parents who fought and died in a terrible war to secure our freedom. The same man who as a smokescreen to pander to MP’s pursuing a vindictive class war allowed 700 hours of precious Parlimentry time to banish foxhunting whist the country was threatening to collapse around his uniquely distinctive ears.

The real irony is that having eventually handed his poisoned chalice to his brooding Chancellor and legged it to cash in on his escalating notoriety, he is history, but foxhunting has never been in better fettle, they could not even get that right, what chance do they have with the real issues? Am I a cynic, yes I am, and an infinitely patient one at that, the incompetents will get their come-uppance but the interim is gonna hurt, be brave!

Another week of purgatory.

Brent crude closed on friday up $5 on the week and 57 cents on the day at $111.09, yet another record high. The market seems to be evolving from pure speculation into a form that, currently, threatens to defy all economic models.

There have been a series of supply threats emerging that will undoubtedly drive the European middle distillate market. Continuing unrest in the Niger Delta leaves around 400,000 bpd of crude production shut in. More concerningly the significant Grangemouth refinery in Scotland faces a two day strike pencilled in for the 27th/28th of April, this will have implictions for the extensive North Sea pipeline network that transports crude to the facility.

To compound potential woes the 600,000 bpd Fos Lavera refinery in Southern France faces further strike action following the chaos created by an earlier walkout which severely disrupted shipping as tankers became trapped in the port. Last fridays fire at the 200,000 bpd Finnish refinery only serves to highlight the increasing risk of supply shortfall due to supply chain disruption.

Collectively these unwelcome factors are seriously impinging on product availability as several million barrels of crude will not be processed during the disruptions. In the short term European middle distillate supplies look set to remain too tight for comfort.

Encouragingly there is further good news emerging on the medium/ long term crude supply front. Hot on the heels of the US Geological Surveys confirmation of the giant Bakken Basin oil field in Montana with potential reserves of 503 billion barrels of light sweet crude comes news of significant offshore discoveries in Brazil.

Brazilian operator Petrobras has confirmed a 33 billion barrel find in 2000  metres of water in a formation known as the Santos Basin. This is in addition to the earlier discovery of between 5 and 8 billions barrels nearby.

This brings the recent tally of new discoveries to around 540 billion barrels which gives lie to recent gloomongers predictions that there were no more giant oil deposits left to discover. The fact that these huge additional resorces are located in politically stable regions must eventually add some stability to a paraniod marketplace which has inflicted so much economic damage recently.

Further record highs vs. dramatically falling demand, an interesting situation.

At thursdays market close Brent crude had advanced  a further 28 cents on the day to close at $107.19, the past week has seen distillates heading off the scale. Fuel has surged unexpectedly to record highs following recent falls which gave some temporary cause for cautious optimism. The big question currently is whether traders can see the light through the fog.

Despite the oil markets rampant bullishness the paradox of constantly rising prices in the face of dramatically weaker demand is an interesting situation where sooner or later something has got to give.

Once again wednesdays US Department of Energy (DoE) weekly stock report showed an unexpected across the board decline in US energy stockpiles during the week ending April 4th. This has happened on several occasions of late but has generally been countered by a corresponding correction in the following period which has triggered price retreats creating the bounce effect.

In the UK market place stockouts at key mainline terminals are becoming unremarkable every day occurences, indeed on one day recently 19 supply locations were reportedly dry.Ccomplacency should not cloud the fact that the UK supply chain in the area south of the M4 is is particularly vulnerable and approaching crisis point as a result of depot closures. This is further exacerbated by Esso’s decision to cease supplying domestic kerosene from Fawley because it has a better market  for aviation kerosene up the pipeline to Heathrow. The Government seems either to be blissfully unaware of or pointedly ignoring this unpalatable fact of life and the undesireable effect it is having on truck mileages and freight costs to the fuel distribution industry. Thankfully the past winter has been generallymild had it been otherwise the situation would have been much more apparent and serious.

Locally, once again we are incredibly fortunate that Falmouth Terminal has kept supplies seamlessly available for West Cornwall. That said the big worry for farmers and fishermen with the onset of their busiest time of the year is the jaw dropping price of gas oil and its cost implications for the frood supply chain. Cost could well be eclipsed by availability in the gas oil market place if rumours of expected shortages of the product throughout Europe materialise.

Here we go again.

Heating Oils SupplyHeating Oils Supply We are flat out bridging in stock after yesterdays market turmoil brings tomorrows near 2ppl price hike as the crude price heads north once more. At least we have product available to collect from Falmouth whereas Plymouth appears to be virtually stocked out once more.

Brent crude advanced $3.11 to close at $105.45 on concerns about the rift between US President Bush and OPEC who have refused to increase production as they feel the market is well supplied and prices are still being driven by other factors. Sentiment was also influenced by fridays fire at Finnish refiner Neste Oils 200,000 bpd  Porvoo refinery.  This facility is predicted to be out of comission through May while repairs and maintenance are completed.

The net result of this unwelcome chain of events was evident as London gas oil hit record highs yesterday. Gas oil had already been forecast as being in tight supply this summer so it is a case of firmly crossed fingers as the current chain of events runs its course.

UKPIA Briefing paper on Heating Oils Supply (pdf opens in separate window -96Kb)